The S&P 500 rose just 2.4% in Q3 2026 after Q2’s AI blowoff, as oil and bitcoin ripped, semis cooled, and mega-cap concentration hit extremes — Microsoft alone drove ~76% of the index return. We review the Warsh Fed’s September hike, the stalled Iran peace process, and what it means for portfolios.

The S&P 500 fell 4.4% in Q1 2026 as the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran sent oil above $100, reignited inflation fears, and crushed risk appetite in March. We review the quarter’s two distinct halves, the “Great Rotation” into small caps and value, and what the war means for the economy and your portfolio.