The fourth quarter of 2025 was marked by the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which finally ended after eight Democrats sided with Republicans. Looking at the full year 2025, precious metals and foreign stocks outperformed the U.S. market.

The S&P 500 index was up a very solid 8% in the third quarter of 2025. It pretty much went straight up with the exception of a minor 2.5% decline in late July. I think everyone is as surprised as we are by this relentless advance in the face of multiple economic and political challenges.

This post is supposed to be a review of the first quarter 2025 which I will do below. However, we want to address the market’s reaction to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement.