The S&P 500 rose just 2.4% in Q3 2026 after Q2’s AI blowoff, as oil and bitcoin ripped, semis cooled, and mega-cap concentration hit extremes — Microsoft alone drove ~76% of the index return. We review the Warsh Fed’s September hike, the stalled Iran peace process, and what it means for portfolios.

The S&P 500 fell 4.4% in Q1 2026 as the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran sent oil above $100, reignited inflation fears, and crushed risk appetite in March. We review the quarter’s two distinct halves, the “Great Rotation” into small caps and value, and what the war means for the economy and your portfolio.

The fourth quarter of 2025 was marked by the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which finally ended after eight Democrats sided with Republicans. Looking at the full year 2025, precious metals and foreign stocks outperformed the U.S. market.

The S&P 500 index was up a very solid 8% in the third quarter of 2025. It pretty much went straight up with the exception of a minor 2.5% decline in late July. I think everyone is as surprised as we are by this relentless advance in the face of multiple economic and political challenges.

This post is supposed to be a review of the first quarter 2025 which I will do below. However, we want to address the market’s reaction to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement.

For such an eventful period, the market didn’t make much progress during the fourth quarter with the S&P 500 rising just 2.5%. It did, however, post a very solid 25% return for the full year 2024.

The market had another good quarter with the S&P 500 rising 5.8% in Q3 bringing it to a very respectable 20.7% year-to-date.

The market had a good second quarter with the S&P 500 rising 4.4%. After rising 10%+ through the end of March, the market hit an air pocket and declined 5.5% by April 19. This drop was driven by recalibration of rate cut expectations for 2024.

The market had a great first quarter with the S&P 500 rising 10.4%. Furthermore, it was a remarkably smooth ride with the largest pullback during the quarter amounting to a mere 1.7%. S&P finally hit a new all-time-high in mid-January, two years after it was last achieved in January 2022.