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Brexit Fallout

Posted June 24, 2016 by Denis Smirnov

Wow, what a day in the markets! British voters unexpectedly delivered “Leave” verdict and threw global financial markets into chaos. Before we get into any analysis, I would like to note that we didn’t make any trades for our clients today and I would caution investors to avoid knee-jerk reaction. Yes, the markets had a VERY bad day  Yes, the selloff might continue over the next weeks/months. However, investors should focus on their personal situation and not let the headlines lead them to decisions they might later regret. For context, a typical diversified 60/40 portfolio represented by Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX) was down 2.81% today and down 2.03% for the week.

Let’s commemorate this momentous occasion by updating the performance tables we looked at couple of weeks ago:

  • European stocks got clobbered today. However, the weekly number is not as bad given a big run up into the vote based on “Remain” speculation.
  • Weakness in foreign stock ETFs was exacerbated by weak currency. British Pound dropped 8.5% to a 30-year low against the dollar.
  • Oil was down 5% but “only” 2% on the week.
  • Safe heavens in bonds had a good day as did the dollar.
  • Gold bugs finally have something to crow about wit a 5% rise.

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  • Decliners on the country level are led by European nations.
  • Interestingly, the weaker countries suffered the most (speculation on more EU exits?).
  • Again, weekly numbers are tempered by run up prior to vote.
  • U.S. did quite well by comparison. This was only fourth worst week of 2016, pretty ho-hum!

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  • Economically sensitive sectors got hit pretty hard today.
  • Gold miners and income-oriented investments did well.

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  • Finally, here is a list of biggest decliners on London Stock Exchange today.
  • Anything to do with real estate, construction and building material got absolutely crushed.
  • Large banks had a terrible day as well. Same goes for the banks in the rest of the European Union.

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